Climate Change Is Real!

Ernie Wittwer
Apr 27, 2024
5 min read

Updated: May 6, 2024

I must admit that reading and thinking about Project 2025 became sufficiently boring and alarming that I had to move to something else, Climate. I will return to it.

The events of the past year confirm that 97% of climate scientists are right, climate change is real, and it requires action. The Secretary General of the United Nations put it bluntly: “The era of global warming has ended. The era of global boiling has arrived.”

TEMPERATURES

Trends in annual surface temperature in the past few decades (1994-2023, bottom) compared to the trend since the start of the 20th century (1901-2023, top). Recent warming is much faster than the longer-term average, with some locations warming by 1 degree Fahrenheit or more per decade. Differences are most dramatic in the Arctic, where the loss of reflective ice and snow amplifies the rate of warming. NOAA Climate.gov, based on data provided by NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information.

July 2023 is in the books as the hottest month in history, not just in Texas or the USA, but across the world. Some scientists say that it may be the hottest month in the last 125,000 years. Here in New Braunfels, we had nearly a month of triple degree temperatures. Phoenix did us better with a month of 110-degree temperatures. The heat wave also moved north, with near-triple degree temperatures in places like Washington, DC, New York, and Boston—even 90+ temperatures in Alaska. Overall, 2023 exceeded the Paris Accord threshold of no more than a 1.5-degree Celsius increase in temperature over pre-industrial times. Since the real measurement must be over several years, it’s not clear that this single year will be determinative.

FLOODING

Heat isn’t the only thing that made last year unusual. We’ve also had extreme flooding in up-state New York and Vermont. Wildfires in Canada filled the skies over a large swath of the USA with smoke. Wildfires in Greece forced evacuations. Ocean Temperatures off the coast of Florida are within the range of the typical hot tub. Surface water temperatures of the Mediterranean were also at record highs. The ocean currents that moderate temperatures along the northern coasts of the USA and Canada and northern Europe are in danger of breaking down.

Scientists who study climate tell us the situation will get worse. The words that I’ve read many times this year are likely correct: “Don’t think of this as the hottest summer ever. Think of it as the coolest summer of the rest of our lives.” What does it mean if future summers are marked by extended periods of 105 or 110+ degree temperatures? Can we really endure a month or two of such extreme temperatures along with droughts, floods, hurricanes, and wildfires that are part of our recent climate experience?

As reasonably affluent Americans we can close our doors and crank up the air. Most people around the world—even a great many Americans—cannot. Those without air conditioning or the means to run it are already compromised—in Texas people died in their homes because of heat last summer. Those who work outdoors in construction or agriculture already have challenges surviving the summer heat. The homeless, like the inmates in our prisons, are simply screwed.

OTHER LIVING SPECIES

As humans, we also often forget about the other 99% of the living species in the world. None of them can use electronic cooling to survive. Fish cannot live long in ocean waters that are as hot as hot tubs. Birds cannot live in forests that have been burned by wildfires. And cattle cannot graze on grasses parched by drought. Many animals are already nearing extinction. We created this situation that endangers them.

EQUITY

We—meaning North Americans and West Europeans—did create this mess. Climate change happens when greenhouse gases accumulate in the atmosphere and hold more heat from the sun close to Earth. Greenhouse gases are made up largely of carbon dioxide and methane. Carbon dioxide is produced from two major sources, transportation and generating electricity. It lasts for centuries in the atmosphere. Methane has several natural sources such as decaying vegetable mater, but also natural gas, which can enter the atmosphere through oil and gas production and leaks in the distribution system. It doesn’t last as long as carbon dioxide in the atmosphere, but it can be more than 80 times as efficient as a greenhouse gas.

At the start of the industrial age in the 19th Century, Britain was the leading producer of carbon dioxide. In the 20th Century, the USA assumed the leading role. In the 21st, China has taken the lead. But remember the gunk stays in the air for centuries. What Britain and the USA did in the 19th and 20th Centuries, is still hanging around and keeping us warm.

Some have characterized this circumstance as the Northern versus the Southern hemispheres. The industrial giants of the North—Europe, North America, and China—have created a problem that now requires a global solution. Why should Peru have to carry even a small part of the cost to address a problem that they had very little role in creating?

This is one of the huge equity challenges that the world will face because of climate change: Will the countries of the North help the poorer countries of the world adapt to changing climate conditions? Will those wealthy countries share technologies that will help poor countries adopt clean energy solutions to allow their standard of living to grow without creating more greenhouse gases? Some are calling for an international fund that would facilitate this help. Not many wallets have yet been opened to put money into such an account.

The other equity issue is at the personal level. Here in Texas, we have a lot of poor people living in a hot climate that will only get hotter. It’s also a climate prone to draughts, floods, and severe storms. Will we help them to afford cooling systems, or protect their homes from storms or floods, or afford food as draught shrinks the food supply? Poor people exist around the world. Will they be helped?

Climate will also cause refugees. Sea levels are already rising. Places like New York and Miami will probably survive with massive public works interventions. But will Mumbai or several of the island nations that could literally disappear under the seas?

SOLUTION

We’ve known about this problem for decades, but it seems that we might finally be ready to do something about it. It’s late, but not too late. William J. Ripple, an American ecologist, has published a report that documents the reality of climate change and the challenges that it brings. His report was supported by over 15,000 scientists. In addition to the doom and gloom that I’ve largely covered here, the report points to several things that can be done to still avert the worst of the impacts of climate change:

Reduce the use of fossil fuels, replacing them with cleaner renewable sources.
Wealthier countries should help poorer countries to transition to renewable energy sources,
Promptly reduce shorter lived emissions, such as methane, soot, and hydrofluorocarbons. This could reduce the long-term warming trend by 50% over the next few decades.
Protect our natural ecosystems, many of which contribute to carbon storage.
Protect and expand our forests, a major natural tool to store carbon.
Adopt a more plant-based diet to reduce the methane emissions related to meat production and to move land from feed production to human food production and natural habitat.
Move from an affluence-focused GDP-measured economy to one focused on meeting the needs of all, fostering equity and sustainability.
Stabilize and gradually reduce the world population.*

To these I would add: Vote for people who will act on climate change issues.

It’s not too late, but we cannot afford to argue about whether it is real for another three decades.

* You can find a copy of the report at https://www.oregon.gov/odf/ForestBenefits/Documents/Forest%20Carbon%20Study/Reference-world-scientists-warning-humanity.pdf.